Articles
Measuring Democratic Backsliding. Forthcoming as the lead article in a special issue of PS: Political Science & Politics. (with Andrew Little)
Coverage in The Interpreter (The New York Times), The Washington Post, The Economist, The Progress Network, Salon, Morgenbladet, Folha de S. Paulo, Estado, Positive News, Real Clear Science, Ufuhamu Africa podcast, Not Another Politics podcast, The Good Fight podcast
Coverage in The Interpreter (The New York Times), The Washington Post, The Economist, The Progress Network, Salon, Morgenbladet, Folha de S. Paulo, Estado, Positive News, Real Clear Science, Ufuhamu Africa podcast, Not Another Politics podcast, The Good Fight podcast
Authoritarian Power Sharing: Concepts, Mechanisms, and Strategies. 2023. Annual Review of Political Science. (with Jack Paine and Robert Powell).
Power Sharing and Authoritarian Stability: How Rebel Regimes Solve the Guardianship Dilemma. 2022. American Political Science Review 116(4): 1208-1225. (with Jack Paine).
Non-technical summary available here.
Data appendix here. Appendix tables here. Data and replication files here.
Non-technical summary available here.
Data appendix here. Appendix tables here. Data and replication files here.
Democratic Subversion: Elite Cooptation and Opposition Fragmentation. 2021. American Political Science Review 115(4): 1358-1372. (with Leonardo Arriola and Jed DeVaro)
Online appendix here. Data and replication files here.
Winning the Game of Thrones: Leadership Succession in Modern Autocracies. 2021. Journal of Conflict Resolution 65(5): 950-981.
Online appendix here. Data and replication files here.
2021 Best Article Award, African Politics Conference Group Section of the American Political Science Association
Online appendix here. Data and replication files here.
2021 Best Article Award, African Politics Conference Group Section of the American Political Science Association
Ruling Parties in Authoritarian Regimes: Rethinking Institutional Strength. 2021. British Journal of Political Science 51(2): 526-540.
Data and replication files here.
The Law and Politics of Presidential Term Limit Evasion. 2020. Columbia Law Review 120(1): 1-77. (with Mila Versteeg, Tim Horley, Mauricio Gium, and Marilyn Guirguis)
Accessing the State: Executive Constraints and Credible Commitment in Dictatorships. 2019. The Journal of Theoretical Politics 33(4): 568-599.
2016 Best Paper Award, Comparative Democratization Section of the American Political Science Association
2016 Best Paper Award, Comparative Democratization Section of the American Political Science Association
Gerrymandering Opposition: Minority-Concentrated Districts and Electoral Competition in Mexico. 2017. Studies In Comparative International Development 52:64-86. (with Brian Palmer-Rubin)
Works in Progress
Violent Rebellion and Political Order (with Killian Clarke and Jack Paine)
Quantitative Approaches (Chapter in forthcoming Oxford Handbook of Authoritarian Politics)
Autocratization (with Jack Paine)
Other Writing
Book review of Spin Dictators: The Changing Face of Tyranny in the 21st Century by Sergei Guriev and Daniel Treisman. 2022. Perspectives on Politics 20(4): 1500-1502.
The Targaryens struggle with a 'crown prince problem,' like all authoritarians. Washington Post, The Monkey Cage. August 28, 2022. (with Andrej Kokkonen, Jorgen Moller, and Anders Sundell).
In Memoriam: Robert L. Powell. International Organization. 2022. (with James Fearon, David Lake, and Jack Paine).
Democratisation and dictatorship revisited. A review of Shock to the System: Coups, Elections, and War on the Road to Democratization by Michael K. Miller. 2022. European Political Science.
Author Exchange with Ken Opalo for Constraining Dictatorship. 2021. Democracy and Autocracy. 19(1): 16-22.